Chase Burns is Too Cheap
After you look under the hood, Chase Burns’ 4.57 ERA is actually a “Buy” signal, not a warning. You aren’t buying his past results; you’re buying his underlying process, which is currently elite.
Here is the data-driven breakdown of why the market is mispricing him and why he is a prime “buy low” candidate as we head into the 2026 season.
💎Chase Burns Bowman Auction Ending Soon 💎
1. The Massive ERA vs. FIP Gap
The most glaring indicator of a “buy low” candidate is a disconnect between surface stats and peripheral metrics.
Surface: 4.57 ERA / 1.32 WHIP (Looks like a mid-rotation starter).
Underlying: 2.65 FIP and 2.68 xFIP.
The Takeaway: A 1.92-point gap between ERA and FIP is astronomical. It tells us that Burns was victimized by poor defense and bad luck in 2025. In the long run, ERA almost always gravitates toward FIP. You are currently buying the 4.57 ERA price for 2.65 FIP talent.
Note: check out his Savant page - he didn’t qualify for most categories, but we’d be working with a lot of red if he did.
2. Elite Bat-Missing Ability (The “K” Factor)
In the hobby, strikeouts = hype. Burns’ 2025 metrics are in the top 1% of all pitchers.
K-Rate: 35.6% (97th percentile).
Whiff Rate: His slider is a “Death Ball” with a 43.7% whiff rate, and his fastball averaged 98.7 MPH (touching 102).
CSW% (Called Strikes + Whiffs): He consistently sat near 30%, which is the gold standard for an elite “Ace” profile.
3. The “BABIP” Regression
Burns finished 2025 with a .368 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play).
For context, the league average is usually around .290–.300.
A .368 BABIP is unsustainably high and indicates that an unusual amount of “bloops” and “grounders with eyes” found holes. When that number regresses to the mean in 2026, his WHIP will plummet, and his “cheap” cards will suddenly look like steals.
4. The “Injury Arbitrage”
The Grade 1 flexor strain he suffered in August 2025 is the reason he’s cheap right now.
The “Casual” View: “He’s a flame-thrower with a bad elbow. Stay away.”
The “Prospector” View: It was a Grade 1 (the lowest severity). He returned in September to pitch out of the bullpen and looked dominant. This “injury discount” has suppressed his 2024 Bowman Draft Auto prices (currently sitting around $150–$225 for a PSA 10), which is roughly 40% lower than where a hitter with comparable “elite” metrics would be priced.
5. Small Market
The "Small Market" Effect: Burns plays for the Cincinnati Reds. While they have a passionate fanbase, they don't drive the massive national "buying frenzies" that Yankees, Dodgers, or Cubs rookies do.
Bowman Analysis
The Post-Debut Correction: After peaking near $180 during his draft hype and again during his June 2025 call-up, the price has corrected downward by about 50-60%.
Recent Sales: Most eBay auctions and “Buy It Now” listings are closing between $68 and $74.
Prospector’s Bottom Line
Burns has Paul Skenes-level stuff but is being priced like a “standard” Reds pitching prospect. If he starts April 2026 with two double-digit strikeout games, that 2.65 FIP will become common knowledge, and the “cheap” window will slam shut.
💎Chase Burns Bowman Auction Ending Soon 💎
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Yankees. Dodgers. Cubs. Would you say the Mets would be the next fan base after those three to drive cards of their players up in value? Pete Alonso doesn’t seem to get the respect he deserves.